Seattle Seahawks (14-4, 10-7-1 ATS) vs. New England Patriots (14-4, 10-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pick ’em (47)
Significant Injuries
Seattle: None
New England: C Bryan Stork (questionable– knee)
Recent Trends
Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 playoff games
New England is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Super Bowl appearances
The OVER is 9-3 in Seattle’s last 12 playoff games
The UNDER is 11-5 in Seattle’s last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 Super Bowl appearances
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. The Seahawks have been absolutely dominant over the past two months, winning 8 consecutive games (covering 7 times) and surrendering just 23 combined 2nd-half points in those games. In last year’s Super Bowl, an almost identical situation (facing an elite offense and future Hall of Fame QB, doubted by bettors), they embarrassed Denver 43-8. Bet against the ‘Hawks at your own peril.
2. Seattle has one of the greatest defenses in NFL history, a unit that has led the league in both yards allowed and points allowed in each of the past two seasons. The New England offense, though explosive at times, has produced 23 points or fewer 4 times in the team’s past 7 games. The Patriots have been unable to run the ball against the league’s better defenses, meaning they’ll have to take to the air against a Seattle secondary that has been downright impenetrable this season.
3. The Seahawks led the league in rushing this year, averaging over 172 yards per game on the ground. The New England defense is not equipped to hold up against power-running teams, as they demonstrated by surrendering 334 combined rushing yards in their two games against the New York Jets. Marshawn Lynch is better than anybody the Jets have, so he should be in for a monster day. Seattle is 5-1 this season when Lynch reaches 100 yards rushing, with four of those wins coming by 16 points or more.
Three reasons to back New England
1. This is the Belichick/Brady Patriots, the gold standard for success in the NFL over the past 15 years, the brilliant coach and Hall of Fame quarterback, and this may be their last, best chance at another Super Bowl title. The Seahawks needed an absolute miracle to beat Green Bay in the NFC Championship game despite the fact that Aaron Rodgers was hobbled, and that game was in Seattle. The ‘Hawks are a different team away from home, as they won just 4 of their 8 road games this season. Last year’s Super Bowl is weighing too heavily on people’s minds here; the Patriots are a more complete team than the Seahawks and should win this game easily.
2. New England averaged nearly 30 points per game this season and they’ve taken it to another level in the playoffs, producing 80 combined points in wins over Baltimore and Indianapolis. Seattle has a quality defense but they’ve been exposed when they’ve faced elite offenses, as they’ve surrendered over 23 points per game in 5 games against Denver, San Diego, Dallas, and Green Bay (twice).
3. The Seattle defense gets all the press, but New England has an excellent defense in their own right. The Patriots surrendered just 19.6 points per game this season and they’re especially good against the run, ranking 9th in rushing defense. That should serve them well against the one-dimensional Seattle offense, a unit that ranks 28th in pass yards per game.
Prediction
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