PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews NEWCASTLE v CHELSEA, NOTTINGHAM FOREST v LEICESTER and LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
12pm We have a cracking Super Sunday from the Premier League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! Obviously Liverpool v Arsenal is the highlight fixture in terms of quality, but the most talked about topic from that game is going to be the guard of honour that Arsenal have to do because it’s a meaningless fixture. We have some very important games in the race for Champions League spots, and we kick off the day with a huge game at 12pm at Newcastle host Chelsea. With Nottingham Forest finishing the season poorly and dropping a lot of points, these two sides are in a good position coming into the weekend sitting in fourth and fifth – obviously there’s an extra Champions League spot for the Premier League this season. Forest are only two points behind these two sides – and they are at home to Leicester later on in a game that they should win, so the loser here could go into the final few games under pressure. It’s a high stakes game to start the day, and you’d imagine there should be plenty of drama too. Newcastle have been over-performing in front of goal this season – their average xG created is a mid-table figure but their actual goals scored average is quite higher.
Chelsea have been creating a lot of chances – they have the third highest attacking figure in the Premier League with an average xG created of 1.82. That’s better than Arsenal, and only 0.04 behind Manchester City. It’s no surprise to see them get into the Europa Conference League Final and you’d expect them to win that – OK it’s not the most glamorous European competition but it’s a superb day out for the fans. Newcastle come into the game as the favourites at 2.23 with Chelsea 3.35 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Although Chelsea haven’t been the most reliable lately, I was very surprised to see Newcastle trading as short as 2.23 when I clicked into the market. Chelsea have a better attacking figure and a better defensive figure compared to Newcastle, and I felt we’d see a much more open betting heat here. From a value point of view, I’m very happy with the Newcastle lay at 2.23 – I can see this game being much closer than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Chelsea at 2.23 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcChl
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LEICESTER
2.15pm Next we have another game that will/could have a big impact on the Champions League spots this season. Nottingham Forest host Leicester in a game they desperately need to win after dropping points in four of their last five Premier League games. They’ve lost three of those – probably the hardest pills to shallow were the losses here against Everton and Brentford. Nevertheless, they come into the weekend only two points behind Newcastle and Chelsea so they still have a chance – a win here for Forest and then should one of Newcastle and Chelsea lose they will jump over them. To be honest; even to get to this position Forest are having a dream season. As I have mentioned time and time again, they have been massively over-performing this season and any fans of xG wouldn’t have been too surprised by this recent dip in results. Forest have an average xG created of 1.41 this season which is mid-to-low table level, but where they are most over-performing is at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.7 which is in the bottom five defensive figures this season.
Their actual goals conceded average is 1.2 this season which is a massive difference – to be honest Forest could be closer to the relegation battle rather than the European spots this season! Lucky for Forest – they face a side here actually in the relegation zone and heading back down to the Championship. Leicester just haven’t been up to Premier League standard this season – they have the second worst attacking figure and the third worst defensive figure. As you would expect, Forest come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.37 with Leicester 9.6 and the draw is 5.8 at the time of writing. I have to say, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the short odds on Forest here – I know they are a price that you wouldn’t recommend tipping wise, but I wouldn’t include them in any weekend Acca. They should get the job done here, but the 1.37 feels too short. With Forest conceding so many chances, Leicester should get on the score sheet even with their poor form up front this season. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.12 and that looks worth backing in what should be an end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotLcr
LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL
4.30pm We finish Super Sunday in the Premier League with Liverpool hosting Arsenal. From a neutral point of view, it’s a shame to have the top two meet at this stage of the season with nothing on the line. Arsenal have to pick themselves up after crashing out of the Champions League at the Semi-Final stage midweek. They didn’t exactly handle that well, mostly saying they were the better side etc. As I said above, the main talking point from this game will no doubt be the guard of honour that Arsenal have to do for Liverpool – it hasn’t been a good week for Arsenal! It’s fair to say that this game might lack the intensity levels that we are used to; however you could also say that the guard of honour might be a very big pride factor which might make the game more interesting. We saw a reasonably lacklustre Liverpool performance against Chelsea last week; Chelsea got pretty lucky to bump into Liverpool when they did in the race for Champions League spots. It’s likely that Arne Slot will continue to give chances to the younger players given the title is in the bag – it’ll be interesting to see what Arsenal do in that sense.
Arsenal have obviously had a draining week mentally, and we could see a lot of changes here. I would definitely keep stakes low until seeing the team news, and from that point of view it might be a case of fastest fingers first for any big market moves. As you would expect with home advantage, Liverpool come into the game as the favourites at 2.08 with Arsenal 3.9 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. I have to say given the situation, it’s hard to have a very strong view on the match odds market too – motivation levels are clearly questionable below the pride aspect given though they have been the top two sides in the league this season. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because we should see an entertaining game here; neither side need to sit back here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 and Both Teams To Score is 1.65. I couldn’t put anyone of either bet to be honest, but at ten ticks bigger I feel the best value option is Over 2.5 goals. Liverpool tend to play a very open game at home, and despite Arsenal having the best defensive figure in the Premier League, we should see goals here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LvpArl
