LA LIGA FRIDAY: The Ultra previews GIRONA v MALLORCA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GIRONA V MALLORCA
8pm Friday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange comes from La Liga this week, and we have a huge relegation battle! Girona host Mallorca with both sides under immense pressure towards the bottom of the table. With just five games remaining, this is about as close to a must win fixture as you can get. Mallorca are sitting in 17th, just one point ahead of the relegation zone while Girona have a three point cushion on Mallorca. With home advantage, Girona will be looking to take full advantage here and move away from the danger zone.
This is a proper relegation six pointer; a win is a direct blow to the other side. Not only that, but Sevilla sit in the relegation zone and surely you’d fancy their chances to survive given the size of that club – it wasn’t so long ago they won the Europa League even with all their troubles! It’s no surprise that both sides have been playing poor football this season given where they sit in the table. When you look at the underlying numbers for both sides, it genuinely is a mirror image. Girona’s average xG created of 1.25 is the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga, while their average xG conceded of 1.68 is the third worst defensive figure. Mallorca’s numbers are almost identical – their average xG created of 1.23 is the third worst attacking figure in La Liga – marginally worse than Girona going forward. Their average xG conceded of 1.67 is also so close to Girona; fourth worst in La Liga.
We have two poor sides here, and it’s hard to have confidence in either of them to be honest. We do have a clear favourite though – Girona come into the game as the 2.1 favourites with Mallorca 3.85 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Obviously home advantage is a big factor when the standard is low, especially in La Liga where away support isn’t really massive. However, given how little there is between the sides in terms of performance levels I do feel the 2.1 is very short on Girona. The major negative to the lay is the Mallorca away record this season though.
No win from their last eleven away La Liga games, and bottom of the away form table. Only six points away from home all season hardly inspires confidence! I do feel that Girona are worth a small lay from a value point of view, but Under 2.5 goals also has to be an option here. Both sides are clearly limited going forward so will be unlikely to take advantage of the mistakes they both make too. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.1 and compared to the Girona price – I’d much rather be on Unders from a value point of view! I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but I’m surprised it’s not trading odds on.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLGiMa
