MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews INTER MILAN v FIORENTINA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V FIORENTINA
7.45pm We have a cracker from Serie A for Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week! Inter Milan host Fiorentina as the sides do battle again quickly after they played each other on Thursday night. Fiorentina ran out 3-0 winners in a fixture that was postponed after the 16th minute due to a medical emergency earlier in the season. This is a huge game for both sides – Fiorentina have put themselves in the mix for a top four spot after three straight wins, while Inter Milan have a huge run coming up in the title race.
After this fixture, Inter face Juventus next weekend followed by Napoli at the start of March – it’s quite possible this month could decide the title race. Inter Milan are also away to Juventus and Napoli, so clearly they have a tough fixture list – they will be thankful that they finished in the top eight in the Champions League and didn’t add to that fixture list! As you would expect with home advantage, Inter come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.51 with Fiorentina 7.4 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing.
Just looking at this game at face value, I’m sure a lot of football fans will feel that the 1.51 on Inter is too short. Fiorentina did just beat them 3-0 after all, and then they are going for a top four spot. Looking under the hood however, you have to say that Fiorentina are over-performing this season. Their average xG created is 1.4 which is a mid-table figure, their actual goals scored average is higher at 1.74. They’ve been over-performing at the back too – their average xG conceded is 1.29 but they’ve only conceded an average of one goal per game this season.
I wouldn’t be rushing to lay this Inter price, however I accept that it doesn’t make much appeal from a back point of view either. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market and look around the side markets for some value. Inter have been very strong at the back this season – their average xG conceded is only 1.02, and given the fact that Fiorentina have been having success at the back this season too, I’m happy with a small position on Under 2.5 goals at 2.26. I was surprised to see Overs as the clear odds on favourite when I clicked into the market – I know Overs backers collected a couple of days ago, but I feel we’re getting value with the Unders bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntFio
