MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GENOA v LAZIO and PARMA v JUVENTUS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GENOA V LAZIO
5pm We have a cracking Monday from Serie A this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! It’s a big night in the race for European spots with Lazio and Juventus both away from home, and we have two very interesting markets. There’s still a wide open race in the battle for the Champions League spots, and you could easily call every game a must win game for the likes of Lazio and Juventus at the moment. We kick off the evening with Genoa hosting Lazio – as you would expect, Lazio come into the game as the favourites but we have a reasonably open betting heat. Lazio are trading 2.38 with Genoa 3.6 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. Lazio put themselves into a great spot in the top four race, but they’ve dropped a lot of points lately. Only two wins from their last eight Serie A games leaves them coming into this matchday sitting in sixth. They are only three points off Juventus in fourth, but it feels like they’ve lost their momentum. Ironically, the two wins have come away to AC Milan and Atalanta – arguably the toughest fixtures on paper but they have had a difficult fixture list – they’ve also met Napoli, Bologna and Roma on this run.
They will welcome the calmer waters of facing Genoa. The home side have really struggled to create quality chances and score goals this season. Their average xG created is only 1.18 – in the bottom six attacking figures – and they aren’t even converting those limited chances. They’re scoring less than a goal a game on average. Lazio have improved a lot in front of goal this season, and they have the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A. They have been a little sloppy at the back though, which is a worry coming into this game. However, I would have Lazio shorter than 2.38 here – I feel that jumps off the page as good value. I know they haven’t picked up a lot of wins lately, but they’ve only lost once in that run and obviously Genoa are a big step down on some of their recent opposition too. Genoa are obviously better with home advantage so I won’t go crazy with the stakes, but the 2.38 on Lazio is too big to ignore here in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Lazio to beat Genoa at 2.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GenLaz
PARMA V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We finish Monday night with Parma hosting Juventus. You only have to look at the table to see that both sides are under pressure here. Parma are just outside the relegation zone coming into the final games, and Juventus are sitting in fourth but Bologna and Lazio will be chasing them all the way. As you would expect given where the sides are sitting in the table, Juventus come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.83 with Parma 5.3 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. There’s a big gulf in class between the sides here looking at their under-lining numbers. Juventus have an average xG created of 1.55 compared to Parma at 1.28. There’s a bigger difference at the back; Juventus have an average xG conceded of only 1.12 and Parma have been quite poor at the back as their figure is 1.55. That 1.55 figure is in the bottom six defensive figures, and it’s not a surprise they are involved in a relegation battle. The Juventus figure of 1.12 is the second best defensive figure in Serie A. The sides did play out a very entertaining 2-2 earlier in the season though!
Juventus can say they were a little unlucky in that game, hey finished with close to double the xG figure of Parma. Juventus have been playing very strong football since February, they seem to be in a totally different place. Parma are conceding a big volume of chances away with home this season, but their average xG conceded of 1.5 at home is still quite poor. I do feel that 1.83 is a little big on Juventus here – this is definitely a game for small stakes though. Juventus are creating less away from home which is a worry – their average xG created at home is 1.72 but it drops to 1.36 away from home. For that reason, I’m going to have a small bet on Juventus here but I do feel that the 1.83 is too big to ignore. They are on a good run at the moment, and Parma are there for the taking to be honest.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Juventus to beat Parma at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ParJuv
