SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews BARCELONA v REAL SOCIEDAD and AC MILAN v LAZIO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BARCELONA V REAL SOCIEDAD
3.15pm We have a cracking Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with two excellent fixtures from La Liga and Serie A. The two fixtures should have a big impact on the title race and the race for European spots. We kick off the day in La Liga with Barcelona hosting Real Sociedad. Both sides were involved in midweek action in the Copa del Rey Semi-Finals. Barcelona played out a thrilling and dramatic 4-4 draw with Atletico Madrid, while Real Sociedad lost 1-0 to Real Madrid. Given Real Sociedad had home advantage in the first leg, they are definitely up against it in that tie. All the headlines around this game will be focused on Barcelona; they come into the weekend sitting top on goal difference, and every game is a must win game in the title drama at the moment. It’s not a surprise to see Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites; however I was a little surprised to see them trading so short! They are the red-hot favourites at 1.3 with Real Sociedad 12.5 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. Real Sociedad have been remarkably consistent over the last few seasons, but they are struggling this season.
Since the 2019/20 season, Real Sociedad have finished between fourth and sixth every time. They come into this weekend sitting in ninth, but they are only one point away from sixth so they could easily still finish there! Their under-lining numbers are mid-table standard however; easy to understand why the market is so confident on a comfortable Barcelona win. Sociedad have an average xG created of just 1.27 this season in La Liga, and they aren’t even converting those chances – they’ve scored less than a goal a game on average. The positive is that they have been rock solid at the back – they’ve also conceded less than a goal on average so I wouldn’t be going into this game just expecting Barcelona to cover the handicap. Sociedad will most likely keep the score line respectable. The market is expecting goals, but I feel Barcelona will have to grind them down more so than blow them away – Under 3.5 goals is trading 1.6 and that looks a nice position to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrcSoc
AC MILAN V LAZIO
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Sunday with another cracking fixture as AC Milan host Lazio. This is an absolutely huge game for both sides in the race for the European spots; they both desperately need a win. AC Milan lost a massive game on Thursday night away to Bologna meaning there’s a good chance now they finish out of the European spots. Juventus jumped over Lazio last weekend too with Lazio getting back-to-back draws. Lazio are now two points behind Juventus; possibly always likely that they would fall short on the top four, but they are in the battle for the time being. AC Milan can be very disappointed with where they are in the table – they sit in eighth place eight points behind the top four, but they have the third best attacking figure in Serie A. They just haven’t got over the line in enough games this season; they haven’t been converting their chances. On paper, you’d usually look at this fixture and suggest we’ll have a cagey affair – classic Italian style. However, really and truly a draw in no good to either side here – they’ll both have to go for the win so we could see an entertaining game.
Obviously Lazio might be reasonably happy with a draw away from home, but that might leave them further behind Juventus by the end of the matchday. AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.16 with Lazio 3.7 and the draw is also 3.7 at the time of writing. Lazio might have the better defensive figure with a low average xG conceded, but AC Milan have been very solid at the back – they’ve only conceded a little over one goal per game on average – but it’s worth noting that their average xG conceded is higher. As I said above, I would usually lean towards Under 2.5 goals here which is trading 2.1 but I feel we’ll see a more open game given the situation. We have two very solid sides here, and I have to say the 2.16 on AC Milan feels too short. I expect a closer game than those odds suggest, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Milan lay – they just haven’t got over the line in enough games this season.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Lazio at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MilLaz
