CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews BAYERN MUNICH v PSG with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BAYERN MUNICH V PSG
8pm We have the highlight of the football week on Betdaq Betting Exchange Wednesday night! The second leg of this extraordinary Champions League Semi-Final as Bayern Munich host PSG at the Allianz Arena. PSG lead 5-4 from the first leg at the Parc des Princes – a nine goal thriller that had absolutely everything. It was criticised a little for almost being too easy to score because there was no defending, just all out attack, but let’s be honest – it was one of the most entertaining games of the season given the way football has gone these days! Obviously PSG have the one goal advantage here, but you have to say it’s perfect poised now Bayern have home advantage.
Bayern come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.76 with PSG 3.95 and the draw is 5.5 at the time of writing. If the first leg made for one of the most breathless European nights in recent memory, this could even top that. As you would expect given the gulf in class between these clubs and their leagues domestically, both sides rested their main players at the weekend in preparation for this. Bayern have the Bundesliga already won, PSG have a six point lead with three games left. Both squads should arrive in peak condition to be honest – we should have a cracker here.
The big team news story is the confirmed absence of Achraf Hakimi for PSG. The Moroccan right back tore a muscle fibre in his right leg in the closing stages of the first leg and will miss the second leg. It is a massive blow for Luis Enrique. Hakimi had been doing a superb job keeping Luis Diaz quiet before the Colombian broke free in the second half to score twice. Without Hakimi, PSG look considerably more exposed on that right side. That could actually prove to have a huge impact here. Bayern will be fully aware of that vulnerability to the right and will no doubt target it relentlessly. It’s hard to see anything other than an end-to-end game here with plenty of drama again – it’s just the way these two play!
The market is expecting goals too – Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.25 at the time of writing! It’s hard not to see goals though – Bayern’s average xG created of 2.31 is the best attacking figure in the Bundesliga – and their average xG conceded of 1.11 is also the best defensive figure in Germany. PSG’s figures are equally impressive in Ligue 1 – their average xG created of 2.12 is comfortably the best attacking figure in France, and their average xG conceded of 0.93 is the best defensive figure too. Bayern won’t have been unhappy with the first leg in my opinion; there’s plenty of stats that suggest they were the better side and PSG had home advantage too – it’s no surprise to see them as odds on favourites here, but the 1.76 does feel a little short. We’re just going to have the two sides attack here for the whole game, and with the amount of talent PSG have, I’m not sure I’d be taking the 1.76 on Bayern.
PSG will not come to Munich and sit deep – it is simply not in their DNA, and Luis Enrique’s approach has always been to press and play forward. But they will be acutely aware that a draw will take them through, so it’ll be interesting to see do they get more cagey as the game goes on. It’s hard to see anything other than goals here though, and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market and go with Over 3.5 goals at 1.6 which looks cracking value given all the drama we saw last week. We landed that quickly in the first leg, and hopefully we can do the same again here!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLBaPs
