Atlanta Falcons (5-9, 6-8 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (6-8, 6-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -6 (56)
Significant Injuries
Atlanta: G Jon Asamoah (questionable– back), WR Julio Jones (questionable– hip), S William Moore (questionable– foot)
New Orleans: DE Akiem Hicks (questionable– ankle), OT Terron Armstead (questionable– neck)
Recent Trends
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC South opponents
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games following a Monday night game
New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last 7 games following a loss
The OVER is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last 6 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 games vs. NFC South opponents
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons are 3-3 in their last 6 games, but the three losses were all against teams with winning records (Cleveland, Green Bay, Pittsburgh), and each of those games was decided by 7 points or fewer. In other words, the ship has been steadied in Atlanta after a decidedly shaky start to the season. The Saints, on the other hand, have lost 4 consecutive home games for the first time in over 15 years. And don’t forget: these teams have already met this season, New Orleans was favored then as well, and the Falcons prevailed.
2. The Saints rank 31st (next-to-last) in total defense and have surrendered 27 points or more in 5 of their past 6 games. They have little chance of slowing down the high-powered Atlanta offense, a unit that ranks 5th in pass yards per game and 10th in points scored. The last time these teams met– back in Week 1– Matt Ryan passed for 448 yards and the Falcons put up 37 points. A similar outcome is expected this time around.
3. There’s no question about Atlanta’s ability to move the ball and score some points in this game, but their defense might have more success than some expect, as well. The Falcons have quietly improved on that side of the ball in recent weeks, surrendering 27 points or fewer in 6 of their past 7 games. Meanwhile, New Orleans has scored 27 of fewer in each of their last four home games, a stretch punctuated by their last performance at the Superdome, a 10-point dud against a terrible Carolina defense.
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. Because the Saints have lost a couple of games at home recently there seems to be a general perception amongst fans and bettors that the team is cratering and should not be trusted. The reality, though, is far different: the Saints have won 2 of their past 3 games, including an impressive win in Pittsburgh over a Steelers team that may go on to win the AFC’s best division. They’re coming off a victory (in Chicago) in which they dominated in all phases, they’re relatively healthy, and they’re led by one of the 5 best quarterback in the NFL. Plus, the home team always dominates when Atlanta and New Orleans get together, covering in each of the last 6 meetings.
2. As usual, the Saints have one of the very best offenses in the NFL. They rank 2nd in total offense and in the top-10 in every major statistical category. Drew Brees is averaging over 300 pass yards per game, and this week he gets to face an Atlanta defense that ranks 32nd– that’s right, dead last– against the pass (the Falcons also rank 32nd in total yards allowed). This could get ugly.
3. Drew Brees is slightly better than Matt Ryan (according to the numbers and any other criteria you care to use). The New Orleans defense is slightly better than the Atlanta defense (according to the numbers and any other criteria you care to use). This game will be played in New Orleans, another advantage for the Saints, and the Falcons may be without key players on both sides of the ball, as receiver Julio Jones and safety William Moore are both listed as questionable and will, at the very least, be limited by their respective injuries (Jones has a bad hip, while Moore is nursing a foot injury). A New Orleans bet is the only sensible play here.
Prediction
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