Detroit Lions (10-4, 7-7 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (5-9, 5-9 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -8 (44)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: CB Mohammed Seisay (questionable– hamstring), DT Nick Fairley (out– knee)
Chicago: CB Tim Jennings (questionable– ankle), G Kyle Long (questionable– hip), DT Jay Ratliff (questionable– knee), S Chris Conte (out– back), K Robbie Gould (out– quadricep)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Detroit is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. NFC North opponents
Detroit is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Chicago is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. NFC North opponents
The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 7-0 in Detroit’s last 7 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Detroit’s last 5 games vs. NFC North opponents
The UNDER is 4-1 in Chicago’s last 5 home games
The OVER is 7-0 in Chicago’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions are a far better team than the Bears, a fact that was proved conclusively when these teams met just 3 weeks ago. That game, a 34-17 Detroit win, wasn’t as close as the final score would indicate, as the Lions dominated in every phase and outgained Chicago by more than 200 yards. Now these teams meet again, and in the meantime the Bears lost two more games and have grown even more dysfunctional. A Detroit bet is the only sensible play here.
2. Chicago is going with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback this week. Yes, that Jimmy Clausen– the one with the 1-9 career record and the ghastly TD/Int ratio. The Bears have been forced to take this drastic step because Jay Cutler was having a horrendous year (Cutler leads the league in turnovers), but, still… Jimmy Clausen? Making matters worse, Clausen will be without Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall, who has been placed on injured reserve. Oh, and by the way– the Lions rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense and 1st in point allowed. Good luck, Jimmy.
3. Detroit has finally begun to click on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 84 combined points in their last three games. The Bears, on the other hand, have only been getting worse on defense, as they’ve surrendered 106 combined points in their last three games and now rank 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) i points allowed.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears are getting a whopping 8 points here despite the fact that the Lions are a terrible road team, covering just twice in their last 9 opportunities. As a matter of fact, Detroit has only won one road game by more than 7 points all season, so it would certainly be out of the ordinary if they were to do so this week. When the public “sells”, sharp bettors “buy”, and the public couldn’t be selling Chicago any harder at the moment.
2. Chicago coach Marc Trestman made news this week when he announced that the team was benching starting quarterback Jay Cutler in favor of Jimmy Clausen. This has created undeniable value on the Chicago side, as the betting public has recoiled in horror at the thought of trusting Clausen with their money and has flooded sports books worldwide with Detroit action. It’s silly, though– Jay Cutler leads the NFL in both interceptions and total turnovers. It’s highly unlikely that Clausen will be any worse than Cutler has been, and there’s a good chance he’ll be better. In the preseason Clausen looked very comfortable in Marc Trestman’s offense, completing over 65% of his passes.
3. The Lions simply aren’t good enough on offense to be trusted as a road favorite of more than a touchdown. They rank 23rd in points scored and have produces 24 points or fewer in 11 of their past 13 games. The Bears have held 5 teams to 20 points or fewer this season, so they’re certainly capable of slowing down a mediocre offense like Detroit’s.
Prediction
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