San Diego Chargers (8-6, 6-8 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-7, 6-7-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -1.5 (40.5)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: DT Ryan Carrethers (questionable– elbow), TE Ladarius Green (questionable– concussion), RB Ryan Mathews (questionable– ankle), WR Keenan Allen (out– ankle), P Mike Scifres (out– collarbone), LB Donald Butler (out– elbow)
San Francisco: OT Anthony Davis (questionable– concussion), CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), C Marcus Martin (questionable– knee), WR Stevie Johnson (questionable– knee), RB Frank Gore (questionable– concussion), RB Carlos Hyde (doubtful– back), LB Chris Borland (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit home loss
San Diego is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games
San Diego is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall
San Francisco is 25-12-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a loss
San Francisco is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games
San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall
The OVER is 8-3 in San Diego’s last 11 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
The UNDER is 5-0 in San Francisco’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last 8 games following a loss
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers are a playoff contender that desperately needs a win this week, while the Niners are a sinking ship with a head coach that’s looking for other jobs, a quarterback that’s lost his confidence, and a defense that’s been decimated by injuries. Plus, San Diego pulled off an impressive win over Baltimore in their last road game, while the 49ers are coming off 3 straight double-digit losses.
2. San Diego ranks 9th in total defense and in their last two games they’ve held both New England and Denver, two of the AFC’s highest-scoring teams, to 23 points or fewer. They shouldn’t have any trouble with the pedestrian San Francisco offense, a unit that ranks 28th in points scored and has produced fewer than 20 points in 7 of their past 8 games.
3. NFL defenses have figured out 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick: just keep him in the pocket and force him to beat you as a passer, which he is usually unable to do. His counterpart on Saturday, San Diego’s Philip Rivers, is a proven veteran who has been to multiple Pro Bowls and is having one of the finest seasons of his career. The Chargers unquestionably have the better quarterback in this matchup.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. San Francisco has lost three straight games and a “sky is falling” attitude has developed amongst some NFL observers, but a closer look at those three games reveals a team that is still playing hard despite a rash of injuries and “distractions”– things like their coach’s uncertain future and the legal entanglements of defensive lineman Ray McDonald. Instead of the way they’ve been portrayed– as an unravelling team that may be prepared to quit on their coach– the Niners look more like a frustrated team that’s ready to let loose on somebody. That somebody may very well be a Chargers team that’s taken a nosedive itself in recent weeks, covering just once in their last 9 games.
2. San Diego has a good secondary but they’re surrendering nearly 110 yards per game on the ground, so this should be a great matchup for the run-first San Francisco offense, a unit that averages over 115 rushing yards per game. The Niners have faced the fierce Seattle defense twice in the past three weeks, so it should be liberating for them to face a defense with clear, exploitable weaknesses.
3. San Francisco ranks 3rd in the NFL in both total defense and passing defense, so it’s going to be tough sledding for Philip Rivers and the Chargers this week. Of course, the Chargers have had trouble against just about everybody lately, scoring 14 points or fewer in 4 of their past 6 games. The absence of top receiver Keenan Allen, who will miss this game with an ankle injury, certainly won’t help things for the Bolts, and they haven’t been able to run the ball all year. Don’t be surprised if the proud 49ers defense totally dominates this game.
Prediction
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