Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 8-6 ATS) @ Washington Redskins (3-11, 4-10 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Philadelphia -7.5 (50)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: QB Nick Foles (out– collarbone), LB Trent Cole (out– hand)
Washington: S Brandon Meriweather (questionable– toe), LB Keenan Robinson (questionable– knee), RB Roy Helu (questionable– toe), DE Jason Hatcher (questionable– knee), OT Trent Williams (questionable- shoulder), QB Colt McCoy (out– neck)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss
Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
The road team is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-1 in Philadelphia’s last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-0 in Washington’s last 4 home games
The UNDER is 7-2 in Washington’s last 9 games vs. NFC East opponents
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. This is a good team facing a bad team, it’s really as simple as that. The Eagles are 9-5 and desperately need a win to bolster their playoff chances, while the Redskins are a 3-11 punching bag that’s lost 6 straight games. The fact that this game will be played in Washington shouldn’t make much of a difference either, as the Skins have failed to cover in 5 consecutive home games.
2. Philadelphia has an explosive offense that ranks 5th in the league in total yards per game and 4th in points scored. They carved up this Washington defense back in Week 3, scoring 37 points and amassing nearly 400 total yards, and the Redskins have been terrible on the defensive side of the ball lately, surrendering 97 points in their past 3 games. It’s difficult to imagine the Skins having any success slowing down the high-powered Philly attack.
3. The Redskins have been disastrously bad on offense in recent weeks, scoring 13 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. They’re in a terrible situation this week, as they’ve been forced to turn back to Robert Griffin III at quarterback after Colt McCoy was placed on IR with a neck injury. Griffin has been terrible this season and has lost the confidence of head coach Jay Gruden, who publicly disparaged the quarterback’s technique and work ethic a few weeks ago. The Griffin-led Washington offense has serious “disaster potential” and should not be trusted.
Three reasons to back Washington
1. The Redskins are the quintessential “buy low” team right now: their 6 straight losses and off-field dysfunction have made them a pariah among bettors, which has resulted in a golden opportunity: the chance to back them as 7.5-point home ‘dogs against a fading division rival. And make no mistake, the Eagles are fading. They’ve lost two straight games and seem to be worse on both sides of the ball than they were early in the season. The Washington side is where the value is here.
2. Uber-talented quarterback Robert Griffin III makes his return to the lineup for Washington and he’ll be facing a Philadelphia defense that has really struggled in recent weeks, surrendering 29.8 points per game over their last 5 contests. The Eagles now rank 27th in total defense and they’re especially bad in the secondary (28th in pass def.), so don’t be surprised if RGIII puts on a show for the home crowd.
3. The Philadelphia offense has been sputtering of late, producing just 41 combined points in their last two games, losses to Seattle and Dallas. Mark Sanchez is beginning to resemble the guy that was derided in New York before being chased out of town, and Washington is so good against the run that Sanchez will be forced to step out of his comfort zone and make some plays if the Eagles plan on moving the ball. Do you trust Sanchez as a 7.5-point road favorite against a team that ranks 10th in total defense? I sure don’t.
Prediction
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