Green Bay Packers (10-4, 7-6-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12, 6-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -11.5 (49)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: OT Bryan Bulaga (questionable– concussion), CB Davon House (out– shoulder)
Tampa Bay: OT Kevin Pamphile (questionable– ankle), WR Solomon Patton (questionable– foot), LB Mason Foster (questionable– Achilles), S Dashon Goldson (questionable– shin), S Major Wright (out– ribs)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record
Tampa Bay is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
Tampa Bay is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. NFC opponents
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-0 in Green Bay’s last 4 games following a loss
The OVER is 7-1 in Green Bay’s last 8 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 7-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 8 games overall
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. Green Bay may be the NFC’s best team, while the Bucs are probably the NFC’s worst team. If that isn’t reason enough to back the visiting Packers, I don’t know what else to tell you.
2. Aaron Rodgers is currently the frontrunner for league MVP, and with good reason: Rodgers has thrown for 3,837 yards and a staggering 35 touchdowns through 14 games, and the Packers rank 2nd in the NFL in points scored (31.1 ppg). The Tampa defense, meanwhile, ranks 25th in yards allowed, 26th in points allowed, and 24th against the pass. This is a total mismatch.
3. The Buccaneers are even worse on offense than they are on defense, as they rank 30th in total yards per game and have scored 17 points or fewer in 8 of their last 9 contests. If you think they’re going to “break loose” with a surprise performance against Green Bay, I have but one question for you: based on what evidence? This offense has been awful all year and will continue to be awful this week. They have no chance of keeping up with the high-flying Packers.
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Packers have been great at home this season but they just haven’t been the same team on the road. They’ve only won 3 of their 7 road games, and 2 of those 3 wins came by 3 points or fewer. In other words, winning by more than 11.5 points on the road would be extremely out of the ordinary for them. They also traditionally struggle against Tampa Bay, covering just 3 times in the last 12 meetings between the two teams.
2. The Green Bay defense has been awful this season, surrendering over 365 yards per game, and they’ve been especially bad against the run, ranking 27th in rushing defense. The Tampa offense has shown some signs of life since quarterback Josh McCown was re-inserted into the starting lineup, and they certainly have a chance to make some noise in this matchup. Last week they rushed for 151 yards against a Carolina defense that defends the run better than Green Bay.
3. The Packers have built their reputation through brilliant performances against some of the NFL’s best teams, but when they’re faced with inferior opposition they routinely have trouble living up to expectations. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 games against teams with losing records, yet they’re a double-digit road favorite in this spot. It doesn’t make sense… that is, it doesn’t make sense until you realize that being overvalued against a losing team is par for the course for the Green Bay Packers. Place your bets accordingly.
Prediction
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