TODAY: KEMPTON TEST FOR JOSS: Kempton got the green light for the reappearance of Josses Hill as he bids to get his jumping sorted out for the Arkle at Cheltenham.
TOMORROW: ABC IS IN THE BAG: Daqman will be back tomorrow with his winning sequences of bankers, lays and bull’s-eye bets at the major meeting at Newbury. The big race ABC was on Tuesday (in the Archive)
SUNDAY: HENNESSY ABC BELOW: Sunday’s big race, the Leopardstown Hennessy, is checked out below in another Daqman ABC test on the probables.
SUNDAY’S HENNESSY GOLD CUP GUIDE
3.50 Leopardstown (Sunday) Cheltenham Gold Cup first and second – split by a short head – Lord Windermere and On His Own – meet again in the Hennessy at Leopardstown on Sunday.
On His Own and Boston Bob bid to give trainer Willie Mullins a four-timer after his 2011-13 hat-trick (he had no runner last year) and his 10th winner of the race overall.
A Aged seven to nine (17 out of 20)
B Won Grade-1 chase (9 out of 10)
C Had won over 3m+ (9 out of 10)
D Had run since Christmas (10 out of 10)
E Winner trained W Mullins (9 out of 16)
ABCD Carlingford Lough
Came back from a long holiday since the Spring with a fine first run back, fading from the final fence, fifth (On His Own second, Boston Bob fourth) in the Lexus Chase over this Leopardstown CD on soft-heavy at Christmas.
First Lieutenant and Lord Windermere were behind him that day, only his second Graded race outside novice company, all the better because he doesn’t want the ground too soft. J P McManus owned so usually ridden by Tony McCoy.
ABCD Lord Windermere
Won his beginners’ chase on this course but was then beaten at the same venue by Boston Bob in the Dr J P Moriarty before taking the RSA Chase at Cheltenham.
He was quiet again, beaten in the English Hennessy and twice back at Leopardstown, and the public had written him off before the Gold Cup last March (going good) but he beat On His Own in an heroic victory at 20-1.
ACD Foxrock
Beaten by Carlingfoprd Lough as a novice before back-to-back success at Navan. Four runs this winter, his jumping letting him down until he really got it together on the last day.
He was ‘the moral’, beaten little more than a length giving 12lb to the winner of the (Grade-B) PP Chase here at Leopardstown over Christmas on heavy, then won a Grade A, dropped back in trip, giving more than a stone to the runner-up, so now raised 16lb in less than six weeks.
AD Home Farm
Best form when third in the Irish Grand National of 2013, fifth that year in the PP Chase. Listedcwinner on his reappearance but fell in the Lexus. Falls short of this level.
AD Texas Jack
A nearly horse, winner and placed in Grade 2 but twice fourth when raised to top grade, including in this race last year when not quite getting home, fourth, half a length behind First Lieutenant. Ran badly on the last day.
BCDE Boston Bob
Grade 1 winner over both hurdles and fences, looked unlucky when falling in Lord Windermere’s 2013 RSA at Cheltenham, and didn’t get back to the top until a Grade-1 double at Aintree and Punchestown last Sproing.
Modest again since, only fourth in the Lexus, but in front of Carlingford Lough, First Lieutenant and Lord Windermere that day. His chance is always hard to assess.
BCD First Lieutenant
Won the Grade-1 Aintree Bowl in the Spring of 2013 but a nearly horse since, an honourable yet disappointing eight times in the first four without winning from nine starts.
Second and third in the Punchestown Gold Cup, fourth in the Down Royal Champion Chase, second in the Lexus of 2014. Only sixth in the same race this time around (behind On His Own, Boston Bob and Carlingford Lough). Needs below-par runs from some of the others and good ground to help.
BCD Roi Du Mee
Won the Bobbyjo at the beginning of 2013 and the Down Royal Champion chase at the end of it. But not a lot in between or since, until returning to form in a Listed at Tramore at the turn of the year. None of that is good enough by a long way.
CDE On His Own
Spoiled his career by being aimed at the Grand National (fell two years running) but finally completed at Aintree when fifth in the Becher Chase.
If the National hadn’t been his target, he might have won a Gold Cup by now. Back-to-back wins in the Thyestes and Bobbyjo a year back sent his rating soaring and he capped them both with a short-head defeat by Lord Windermere on a belated bid for that gold.
Back to form at Christmas, second in the Lexus with four of this field behind him. If he’s too old for Cheltenham now, at least he’s the right age for the National!
CEASAR 6.2 VALUE TO BOSS JOSSES HILL
3.05 Kempton (Graduation Chase) Nicky Henderson has landed a hat-trick in this (no runner 2013) but none have gone on to be the stars he hoped, notably Punchestowns. This proved to be his swan-song in 2011.
But it will be a huge shock to the Seven Barrows system if Josses Hill fails to establish himself here, with conditions to suit, down to 7-1 for the Arkle (9.4 on BETDAQ this morning).
Connections have always been confident that the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle runner-up to Vautour – they could meet again in the Arkle – is better than his defeat after an absence by Ptit Zig at Ascot in December, though his jumping was again problematic on the last day.
Ptit Zig’s stablemate Ceasar Milan, on the other hand, jumped superbly when quieting the Grade-1 hurdle winner, Whisper (same stable as Josses Hill) in Whisper’s first chase at Exeter.
Ceasar Milan has no fancy entries but it’s a Henderson-Nicholls clash that could be vital to Cheltenham. Given 6.2 on BETDAQ, I shall cheer the underdog.
CHAVOY TO CONTINUE ON THE UPGRADE
NEWCASTLE: Lucinda Russell has hit a seam of form of 1222312332, still standing, and has five nice chances at Newcastle today.
The snag with Amore Mio (1.50) is that he’s unpredictable at the best of times. His last-day win is a bonus in that he can’t be penalised (for a conditionals’ race) but it also ticks the box of doubt that he can put two races together. It’s never happened, and he’s 10 now.
Still 7lb lower than a year ago but down in trip here which didn’t suit at Ayr in January. But what is the alternative?
Geoffrey Harker is the other trainer in form here, albeit on the Flat (AW), and his Conjola is a bet in running. She gets miles behind, with stamina her strong suit, yet hasn’t been tried this far before. I’ll have a pound at 25.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
Present Lodger (2.20) also goes for back-to-back success for the Russell stable, finding today’s trip suited his front-running style at Ayr.
The Irish raider Personal Shopper is ruled out because lofted to her hurdles mark, despite a string of defeats over fences at 9-10lb lower.
On tentative lines through Marlee Mourinho, the one to catch Present Lodger could be Dingo Bay, who has been progressive in cheekpieces.
Up in the weights, but this is his trip, this is his ground and this is his track: three times a Newcastle winner.
Lucinda’s Make It Happen (2.55) hasn’t happened yet, whereas Bobs Lord Tara, Daring Exit and Luccombe Down have all won bumpers.
Doctor Phoenix has been backed early mouse as though defeat is out of the question (7.0 bar one), which makes the McCain best, Luccombe Down, the value.
His name sounds more like one of those spurious virtual racetracks the bookies have come up with for their betting-shops (do people actually bet on them?)
Luccombe Down is probably a price because he’s so far raced only on a soundish surface and his sire has a very poor record (only one winner in fact) with progeny racing in the mud.
Staying with Ms Russell, Bescot Springs (3.25) is a stone lower than his old winning form but has been struggling lately.
Sharney Sike was hit for a 7lb rise – which puts him that much higher than his best winning mark – when slamming Chavoy at Hexham.
But he fell in a hole at Ayr, pulled up behind Chavoy last month, typical of the kinds of results you get at this level.
But Chavoy has continued on the upgrade: won since over today’s CD at a higher level and was the ‘moral’ in that Sharney Sike race at Ayr, beaten less than three lengths but giving 6lb to the winner.
Normally, you’d worry about Beauboreen, a stout enough stayer, but his stable is missing strike badly right now; second, second, second, including a losing favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 shows the strength of the selection; 10 is a banker)
BET 1pt win and place CONJOLA, and 1pt win (stakes saver) AMORE MIO (1.50 Newcastle)
BET 5pts win DINGO BAY (2.20 Newcastle)
BET 3pts win CEASAR MILAN (3.05 Kempton)
BET 7pts win (nap) CHAVOY (3.25 Newcastle)
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