5-2 BULL’S EYE WITH HIS FIRST THROW: Saturday was a day of crazy results in the mud but Daqman’s promise to hit the bull came good at first time of asking in 2015 when Unioniste (WON 5-2) took the big chase at Sandown, giving his Bull’s Eye Bets 42 points profit for the New Year to follow on the 238 he left behind in the old.
LEGS ELEVEN CALLED OVER PRICEWISE: Unioniste provided a 1-1 draw in the challenge between Daqman and Pricewise of the Racing Post, taking the jumps season total to Daqman 11, Pricewise 7 (overall 119-66). An early one-two (Aurore d’Estruval WON 6-4 and Dark Spirit 2nd 7-1) meant that Daqman finished the day 16 points up.
Just the three meetings on Sunday and fingers crossed the lingering fog makes it’s way out of Plumpton where they stage the Sussex National at 2.50pm.
Plumpton had actually avoided the worse of the rain, until yesterday when they were hit with 2.5mm and the ground is now soft, heavy in places.
There’s a good card in Ireland at Naas with the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle very much the highlight.
Temperatures hit -3 overnight at Southwell but racing goes ahead on a standard to slow surface. The track had to abandon a meeting last week when the temperature dipped to -4.
THE SUSSEX DOZEN
Just 12 runners go to post now for the big race at Plumpton, the At The Races Sussex National over 3m 5f.
The stats tell us that although the outright favourite has a poor record, recent winners have all been single figure odds. Weight wise there has been no winner in the last decade carrying more than 11st 4lb.
But there’s Moore……
The key men to keep an eye on are Gary and Joshua Moore from their local base in Lower Beeding – they have won the last two renewals with Well Refreshed in 2013 and Reblis last year who they again rely on to go back to back in the race.
Down the card, my thoughts:
1. Ballybough Gorta
Seemed harshly penalised for winning at Cartmel in July. Rain has gone against him and was pulled up in this race last year on heavy ground. Comes into this on the back of being pulled up twice.
2. Flying Award
Falls outside of the stats that suggest 11st 4lb or more is a negative. Distance and trip won’t be worry – he slugged it out to win over 3m 6f at Exeter last March but seems to have lost his way since then. Don’t be misled by his fifth last time out. That was a last of five finish – beaten 106 lengths !!
3. Adrenalin Flight – NON RUNNER
4. Tarraco
Again the weight stats say no, but is definitely one for the short list. He reappeared to win in good style at Ffos Las last time out but has been hiked up 9lb to a career high 121. He is lightly raced and took a while to click but might just be held back by his handicap mark. He scooted home by 28 lengths here last March over 3m 2f on soft ground but that came off a mark of just 89.
5. Dont Do Mondays
There are angles for suggesting this lightly raced sort has claims but I keep getting held back by his run over three miles at Chepstow in April when he was a well beaten last of six on good to soft ground. Unproven over this trip and no obvious signs that it will necessarily suit.
6. Gorgehous Lliege
Like Tarraco is trained by Venetia Williams. Went off favourite for the Devon Marathon a month ago and pulled up before three out. He had earlier been hampered in the race so perhaps best not taken at face value. He had previously won in the mud over 3m 4f at Fontwell but went up 9lb for that and handicapper has kept him on that mark after his Exeter disappointment.
7. Leg Iron
Hiked up 5lb after a game victory here last time over 3m 2f on heavy ground. The concern would be this is quite a quick reappearance although he does look a little over priced on the BETDAQ market.
8. Reblis
Won this last year off a 2lb higher mark on more testing ground than he is likely to face today. Relished the conditions last year in a race where less than half completed. His efforts since that win have been in the main hugely disappointing – he’s been beaten an average of 53 lengths in five subsequent starts and last year came into this on the back of a win.
9.Coolking
1 win from 29 career starts tells its own story – and he was well beaten on seasonal reappearance at Sandown. However, this a quirky distance and he did prove himself over the conditions and trip with a second to Flying Award in last seasons Devon National. Balance of form suggests he has a tough task however.
10. Itoldyou
Got no further than the fourth before falling here last time out when favourite. Had previously shown good form at Newbury and Fontwell but the thinking is that this trip is at the very extreme of his stamina and might just find him out in the closing stages.
11. Blackwell Synergy – NON RUNNER
12. Viking Blond
Won a selling hurdle (only just!) at Ffos Las last April and put in a fair effort to finish third in a handicap chase at Warwick last time out over 3m 5f. Had previously disappointed in better company when tailed off in the Southern National at Fontwell and a similar outcome can be expected today.
13. Amroth Bay
Very interesting contender who is unbeaten in two starts since joining Dan Skelton. Proved himself over this marathon trip when winning at Huntingdon last time out (3m 6f 110y) and looks one of the few on an upward curve – despite being a 10-year-old!
14. Ballyvoneen
Remarkably consistent and goes well here but back to his career high mark. Has place claims but occasionally let down in the jumping department.
DAQMAN ORDER IN: 1: Amroth Bay 2: Tarraco 3: Leg Iron
UNBEATEN RECORDS ON THE LINE
The Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle at Naas looks a match between the unbeaten runners Free Expression from Gordon Elliott and Tell Us More, the favourite, for Willie Mullins.
Free Expression won the Monksfield, a Grade 2, at Navan last time but had to work quite hard to beat a 40/1 chance and the raw potential of Tell Us More may prove too much.
Tell Us More won his maiden hurdle at Gowran Park in impressive style and already is prominent in Cheltenham ante-post markets. He looks set to take this and repeat the stables win from 12 months ago with Briar Hill.
Elsewhere on the Plumpton card I thought Kilgeel Hill was worth siding with against the penalised Caracci Apache in the 1.50. Henderson’s runner won well at Sandown but now has to concede 10lb to the selection who made all to win at Leicester and as it was a conditional jockeys race he escapes a penalty.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Strength 1-9pts, with 10pts for a Banker)
BET 8pts win (nap) TELL US MORE (1.30 Naas)
BET 5pts win KILGEEL HILL (1.50 Plumpton)
BET 5pts win AMROTH BAY (2.50 Plumpton)
BET 2pts win, 5pts place LEG IRON (2.50 Plumpton
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