Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1, 8-7-1 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 10-5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3.5 (49.5)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: TE Jermaine Gresham (questionable– back), RB Cedric Peerman (questionable– concussion), WR A.J. Green (doubtful– concussion), WR James Wright (out– knee), WR Dane Sanzenbacher (out– concussion)
Indianapolis: RB Trent Richardson (questionable– illness), C A.Q. Shipley (doubtful– ankle), G Hugh Thornton (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Indianapolis is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. AFC opponents
Indianapolis is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-0 in Cincinnati’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Indianapolis’ last 5 Wildcard Round games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Indianapolis’ last 4 games overall
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have played some really good football over the past couple of months, winning 5 of their past 7 games despite playing at home just twice in that stretch. The Colts, on the other hand, were beaten 42-7 by Dallas in Week 16 and have covered just once since November. Indy’s decisive victory over Cincinnati earlier this season still carries a lot of weight with the betting public and it’s why the Colts are both a favorite and a popular public bet this week, but the Bengals are better at every position except quarterback and are well-positioned to end their much-publicized postseason losing streak.
2. The Cincinnati offense has re-invented itself over the second half of the season, turning to the running game as their primary staple and shifting quarterback Andy Dalton to more of a complementary role. The midseason injury to halfback Giovani Bernard opened the door for rookie Jeremy Hill, and Hill has responded by averaging over 100 rushing yards per game since Week 9. As a matter of fact, since Week 9 only two teams leaguewide have rushed for more yards than the Bengals, and now that Bernard is healthy again the team has a “thunder and lightning” backfield tandem that’s been nearly impossible for opposing defenses to stop. Next up: a vulnerable Colts defense that ranks 18th against the run.
3. The Colts have proven that they know how to put away bad teams, as they’re 19-3 against the spread in their last 22 games against teams with losing records. However, they’re a different team when faced with quality opposition, going 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with winning records. As a matter of fact, the Colts faced eight teams this season that ended the year with a winning record and they lost 5 of those games. The Bengals, who are 10-5-1 and have won 5 of their last 7, will be a stiff test, and Indy bettors should be very nervous about having to lay 3.5 points.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have established themselves as one of the AFC’s elite and they’re especially good at home, where they’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records. They’ve already shown what happens when they host Andy Dalton and the Bengals– back in Week 7 these teams faced off and it was an absolute laugher, with the Colts cruising to a 27-0 win that could’ve easily been worse. There’s no reason to expect anything different this time around.
2. Indianapolis ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense and they lead the league in passing. They have an elite young quarterback in Andrew Luck and a defense that surrendered 17 points or fewer 7 times this season. They’ll be hosting a Cincinnati team that ranks 22nd in total defense and 20th against the pass. Over the past four weeks the Bengals have faced the league’s 2nd-ranked passing offense (Pittsburgh) twice, and they surrendered 69 combined points and lost both games.
3. Why do we learn history in school? So we don’t repeat the mistakes of our forefathers. Well, here’s a little history lesson for you: in three career playoff games Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton has a 56.2 rating, which is what happens when you thrown just 1 touchdown pass and 6 interceptions. Not surprisingly, the Bengals lost all three games. When Dalton faced the Colts a few weeks ago he threw for a mere 126 yards on 38 attempts and his team failed to score a points. Know your history: keep your money far away from Andy Dalton.
Prediction
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