Detroit Lions (11-5, 7-9 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-4, 10-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Dallas -6.5 (48)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: DT Nick Fairley (doubtful– knee), G Larry Warford (out– knee)
Dallas: DE Tyrone Crawford (questionable– illness), LB Anthony Hitchens (questionable– ankle), OT Doug Free (doubtful– ankle)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
Detroit is 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games
Dallas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 8-1 in Detroit’s last 9 road games
The UNDER is 6-1 in Detroit’s last 7 games following a loss
The UNDER is 3-0-1 in Dallas’ last 4 home games
The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions have been rolling of late, winning 4 of their past 5 games thanks to an offense that has steadily improved over the course of the season and a top-5 defense that continues to dominate. It’s absolutely ridiculous that they’re a 6.5-point ‘dog against a Cowboys team that’s covered just twice in their last 8 playoff games. Dallas’ postseason collapses have become so common over the last decade that the situation is almost comical. Sharp bettors will take full advantage of this situation.
2. The Dallas offense had been heavily leaning on DeMarco Murray and the running game all season, but it’s become even more pronounced since Tony Romo’s back injury in late October. The Cowboys have largely been unaffected by Romo’s injury due to their schedule, but that all comes to an end this week when they face a Detroit defense that ranks 1st in the NFL against the run and 2nd in total yards allowed. The Lions have been positively dominant on the defensive side of the ball lately, holding 4 of there last 5 opponents to 17 points or fewer, and they’re surrendering just 69 rushing yards per game. Will the Cowboys be able to score on Sunday? Better yet, will they be able to score enough to cover the 6.5-point number?
3. The Lions have an offense that features the NFL’s best receiver (Calvin Johnson), a talented backfield (Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Theo Riddick), and a quarterback who has led the league in passing before and is now in the midst of his physical prime. This week they’ll be facing a leaky Dallas defense that ranks 19th in yards allowed and a dismal 26th against the pass.
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. The Cowboys are playing as well as any team in the NFL at the moment, as they’ve won 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7. They shouldn’t have any trouble with an overrated Lions team that has covered just once in their last 7 games against teams with winning records.
2. The Dallas offense has been nearly unstoppable in recent weeks, producing 165 combined points in the team’s last 4 games. They’ve been productive against great defenses, too, as they went up to Seattle and hung 30 points on the Seahawks back in Week 6. The Lions aren’t quite as good defensively as Seattle, especially in the secondary, where cornerbacks Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay will have trouble matching up with the Dallas receiving corps. Don’t be surprised if Dez Bryant outshines his counterpart Calvin Johnson this week.
3. It’s common knowledge that the Cowboys have one of the league’s best offenses, but over the past couple of weeks they’ve been playing championship-level defense, too. In Week 16 they suffocated an Indianapolis team that ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense and led the league in passing, holding them to just 7 points in a 35-point Dallas win. Now they get a Detroit offense that has struggled mightily all season– the Lions rank 22nd in points scored and have totaled 24 points or fewer in 13 of their 16 games.
Prediction
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