MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GENOA v AC MILAN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GENOA V AC MILAN
7.45pm Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A this week! It’s the start of a massive week around Europe as we finish the Champions League and Europa League Semi-Final ties; although you might say that the Europa League is already decided after those first leg results! We have an interesting market to start the week from Serie A as Genoa host AC Milan. Unfortunately for both sides, it looks like they will just go through the motions to finish out the season. AC Milan will surely have their full focus on the Coppa Italia Final coming up.
It’s been a very disappointing season for AC Milan in Serie A. They sit in mid-table, miles off the European spots. They won the Italian Super Cup over Inter Milan in Saudi Arabia earlier in the season, and obviously they have had a great run in the Coppa Italia, but it’s been hard to put your finger on why they have struggled so much in Serie A for results. They actually have the third best attacking figure in Serie A with an average xG created of 1.64 – they are under-performing a little to that figure because their actual goals scored average is 1.56 but that’s only marginal really and they are over-performing at the back too.
When you look at the under-lining numbers and the performance levels from AC Milan, it really is hard to put your finger on why they sit in mid-table to be honest. They should be competing for the top four but here we are. Genoa are sitting safely in mid-table, and they can definitely just go through the motions to finish out the season if they want to. As you would expect given the gulf in class between the sides, AC Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.82 with Genoa 4.9 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing.
Genoa have tried their best to keep their games as tight as possible this season. They have a very poor attacking figure; their average xG created is only 1.17 which is in the bottom five attacking figure so you can see why they want to be solid at the back – they just aren’t going to out-gun sides. Their average xG conceded at 1.39 is pretty OK Serie A wise – AC Milan’s defensive figure is 1.32 for example. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.82 on AC Milan here given they have struggled to get over the line in games this season, but given Genoa have been reasonably solid at the back I like Under 2.5 goals here at 2.02. I’d have that marginally as the favourite in what should be a tight game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GenMil
